Pakistan Meteorological Department data for winter 2025–26 shows near-normal conditions, countering viral claims of an extremely cold season in Pakistan.
Viral Claims of Extreme Winter Not Backed by Data
Ahead of the 2025–26 winter season, a wave of unverified claims spread across social media, print outlets and even mainstream talk shows, warning that Pakistan was about to face an “extremely cold” winter. These dramatic statements fuelled public anxiety, despite the absence of scientific backing from official forecasting agencies.
The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has now made it clear that such claims were not supported by its Seasonal Winter Forecast for December to February, nor by regional and global climate indicators monitored by its experts. Observational data recorded so far confirm that the season is unfolding broadly in line with PMD’s pre-season outlook, rather than the exaggerated scenarios pushed on social platforms.
PMD Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2025–26
PMD’s seasonal outlook for the December–January–February (DJF) 2025–26 period was developed using regional and global climate prediction systems supported by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Based on these tools, PMD had forecast near-normal to slightly below-normal rainfall for most parts of the country.
In terms of temperatures, the outlook indicated that conditions would remain slightly above normal over much of Pakistan. This means that, on average, winter temperatures were expected to be a little warmer than the 1991–2020 climate baseline, even if individual cold spells or fog events still occurred during the season.
Observed December Conditions Match the Forecast
Observed weather patterns for December 2025 have largely matched PMD’s earlier projections. Data compiled so far show overall below-normal rainfall in many regions, with only limited light to moderate precipitation recorded over western and northwestern areas of the country.
At the same time, mean temperatures have generally remained above normal, especially in Gilgit-Baltistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. These observations are consistent with the pre-season outlook and contradict the idea of a harsh, exceptionally cold winter dominating the entire country.
Summary of December 2025 Rainfall and Temperature
PMD’s December summary provides a clear snapshot of how rainfall and temperatures compared with long-term averages for the 1991–2020 normal period. The table below highlights total rainfall, normal rainfall, percentage departure from normal, mean temperature and temperature anomaly for different regions of Pakistan.
| Region | Total Rainfall (mm) | Normal Rainfall (mm) | Rainfall Departure (%) | Mean Temperature (°C) | Temperature Anomaly (°C) |
| Pakistan | 10.3 | 15.8 | -34.8 | 13.8 | +1.2 |
| AJK | 28.2 | 46.8 | -39.7 | 11.6 | +0.1 |
| Balochistan | 11.8 | 13.2 | -11.0 | 15.0 | +1.2 |
| Gilgit-Baltistan | 8.1 | 10.9 | -25.9 | 5.9 | +2.3 |
| Khyber Pakhtunkhwa | 15.5 | 25.7 | -39.7 | 11.5 | +1.5 |
| Punjab | 3.7 | 13.8 | -73.2 | 18.5 | +0.7 |
| Sindh | 14.4 | 7.9 | +71.7 | 18.5 | +0.7 |
Public Urged to Rely on Official PMD Information
The ongoing evolution of the 2025–26 winter season remains in close agreement with PMD’s pre-season outlook and does not support claims of an unusually extreme winter. While local cold spells can be severe at times, they do not change the broader climate picture at the national scale.
PMD has advised the public, media and decision-makers to rely on its official weather and climate products for accurate, timely and scientifically validated information. Depending on unverified posts or sensational headlines can lead to confusion, poor planning and unnecessary alarm. By following official advisories, communities and authorities can better prepare for real weather risks, whether those involve cold waves, fog, rainfall or other seasonal hazards.
