Petrol, diesel, kerosene, and light diesel prices in Pakistan to increase from October 1, 2025, driven by rising global crude oil rates and refinery adjustments.
Expected Fuel Price Hike in October
The government of Pakistan is preparing to raise petroleum product prices starting October 1, 2025. This decision comes amid a renewed rally in international crude oil markets, which has pushed up both ex-refinery and ex-depot rates across the country. The price revision is expected to impact petrol, high-speed diesel, kerosene, and light diesel oil.
Projected Refinery Price Adjustments
At the refinery level, petrol is projected to rise by Rs. 1.97 per liter, from Rs. 160.93 to Rs. 162.90, marking a 1.2% increase. High-speed diesel (HSD) could see a Rs. 2.48 per liter hike, moving from Rs. 172.65 to Rs. 175.13, a 1.4% rise. Kerosene oil is facing the sharpest increase at Rs. 4.66 per liter, from Rs. 151.62 to Rs. 156.27, a 3.1% jump. Light diesel oil (LDO) is also set to edge up by Rs. 1.76 per liter, from Rs. 141.63 to Rs. 143.39, reflecting a 1.2% increase.
Impact on Ex-Depot Consumer Prices
These refinery-level adjustments will directly influence ex-depot prices, the rates at which consumers purchase fuel at petrol stations. Petrol’s ex-depot price is expected to climb from Rs. 264.61 to Rs. 266.58, an increase of Rs. 1.97 per liter or 0.7%. Diesel prices could rise from Rs. 272.77 to Rs. 275.25, up by Rs. 2.48 per liter or 0.9%. Kerosene oil will likely jump by Rs. 4.65 per liter, moving from Rs. 179.96 to Rs. 184.61, a 2.6% hike. Light diesel oil is projected to increase from Rs. 163.42 to Rs. 165.18, up by Rs. 1.76 per liter or 1.1%.
Household and Economic Impact
If approved, the latest hike will further squeeze household budgets, especially for low- and middle-income families. Consumers are already grappling with record-high inflation, surging electricity tariffs, and rising food costs. Higher fuel prices also raise transportation costs, which could feed into general price inflation and create additional challenges for businesses and consumers alike.
Global Oil Market Influence
The price hike reflects Pakistan’s dependency on global oil markets, where recent geopolitical developments and supply constraints have driven crude oil prices higher. Experts warn that unless international crude stabilizes, domestic prices may continue to fluctuate in the coming months. The adjustments are also part of government efforts to align domestic rates with global market trends and manage subsidy burdens.
Policy Outlook and Future Implications
While the new prices are set to take effect from October 1, the final notification will depend on approval from relevant authorities. Economists suggest that the government faces a delicate balancing act between managing public discontent and maintaining fiscal stability. The rise in petroleum product prices highlights the urgent need for energy diversification and long-term strategies to reduce reliance on imported fuels.
