Pakistan is expected to face one of its coldest winters as La Niña returns, bringing below-normal temperatures, reduced rainfall, and challenges for agriculture, health, and communities still recovering from floods.
Pakistan Braces for Record-Low Temperatures
The La Nina weather pattern has intensified with meteorologists projecting that Pakistan will have one of the coldest winters in recent decades. A report by the Intersector Coordination Group (ISCG) and UN-OCHA revealed that the overall direction of the cooling will contribute to lower than average temperatures nationally and will complicate recovery operations in areas of the country still under the influence of the monsoon floods of 20223. Analysts observe that lingering floodwater, decreased rainfall, and cold winds may spell out greater sufferings to the susceptible communities.
Understanding the La Niña Phenomenon
La Niña belongs to the El NiñoSouthernOscillation (ENSO) cycle – a regular cycle in the climate that is comprised of warm (El Nino), cool (La Nina) and neutral states. It is a process that takes place when the sea surface temperatures of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean are lower than usual, interfering with the global weather patterns. This normally equals a colder and drier climate in the north and a slightly damper perspective in the south in South Asia. In September 2025, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) verified that La Nina conditions have reappeared and would continue until February 2026, although this stage could be relatively gentle and brief.
Expected Weather and Rainfall Patterns
The ISCG report predicts below-normal rainfall in the northern part of Pakistan, such as Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, northern Punjab, Azar jammu and Kashmir (AJK), and Gilgit-Baltistan (GB). Sindh, Balochistan and southern Punjab on the other hand can also receive near normal precipitation. Scholars explain such differences by a poor negative stage of both El Nino Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Consequently, late in November 2025 until the beginning of February 2026, the cold spells will be prolonged, and there will be a lot of fog and frost in the lowlands.
Potential Impacts on Agriculture and Health
This mixture of cold weather, and the effect of the previous floods, according to experts, would have a severe impact on various sectors. It is expected to lead to fading of Kharif crop, decreased river run-offs, and access to scarce water to irrigate lands. High humidity and stagnant water would most likely increase the number of diseases spread by mosquitoes like dengue and malaria. Also, the severe winter can damage farm animals, decrease the supply of fodder, and cause respiratory diseases among the rural communities. The worsening of the smog and air pollution in Punjab and Sindh are also anticipated by the environmental analysts because of the temperature inversion.
Risk to Glaciers and Mountain Ecosystems
Extreme temperature decrease in frozen Pakistan in the North may increase the risk of a glacier lake outburst flood (GLOFs). The abrupt freezing and melting of the ice enhances the possibility of cracks developing in the glacier barriers posing danger to communities downstream. Experts note that there is a necessity in better systems of monitoring and early warning in places like Chitral, Hunza as well as Skardu where dozens of glacial lakes have already been designated as vulnerable.
Preparedness and Mitigation Measures
Governments are being called upon to make contingency plans to reduce the humanitarian and agricultural impacts of La Nina. It has been recommended that disaster management bodies, health departments and local administrations should increase vaccination campaigns, keep waterborne diseases in check and to make sure that the rural communities have emergency shelters in place. Proactive efforts to contain the effects of the cold wave on the livelihoods and national food security in the country, according to experts, will include insulating the livestock shelters, stocking up the grain reserves and checking the river flows.
