With Hormuz traffic collapsing amid the Iran war, Gulf producers are turning to pipelines. But even the biggest routes cannot replace the strait’s ~20 million bpd role, and each has its own chokepoints.
Why the Strait of Hormuz disruption is a global shock
As the United States–Israel war on Iran enters its fourth week, global energy markets are under pressure because shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted. In normal conditions, nearly 20% of global oil and gas—around 20 million barrels per day—moves through this narrow route linking Gulf producers to world markets.
Reports say traffic has plunged after Iranian warnings to vessels linked to the United States or Israel. Iran later clarified that the passage is not fully closed, but ships are said to require Tehran’s approval to transit. That uncertainty is enough to disrupt the market: shipowners pause, insurers raise premiums, and charterers delay cargo decisions.
The report describes activity down more than 95% with about 2,000 vessels stranded on both sides. Even if some tankers are reportedly getting permission—especially those connected to India, Pakistan, and China—the overall drop creates a large supply shock.
The three pipeline routes being used as alternatives
Gulf countries do have pipeline options that bypass Hormuz, but capacity is limited.
Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline (Petroline) runs about 1,200 kilometres from Abqaiq to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. It is reported to have a maximum capacity of 7 million barrels per day, with around 5 million barrels per day available for export. Saudi Arabia has reportedly increased flow through this line since the conflict began.
The UAE’s Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP), also called the Habshan–Fujairah pipeline, runs 380 kilometres to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman. Operational since 2012, it can carry about 1.5 million barrels per day, and exports from Fujairah have reportedly increased.
The Iraq–Turkiye (Kirkuk–Ceyhan) pipeline links northern Iraq to Turkiye’s Mediterranean coast. It has a capacity of around 1.6 million barrels per day, but current flows are estimated at only about 200,000 barrels per day, far below potential.
Why pipelines cannot replace Hormuz: capacity and chokepoints
Even if these routes run hard, they do not close the gap. Combined, they are described as handling around 9 million barrels per day. That is less than half of the roughly 20 million barrels per day that normally moves through Hormuz.
There is also “risk shifting.” Saudi’s Petroline ends on the Red Sea, but oil still must ship out through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, another chokepoint that could face disruption from Yemen’s Houthi movement. So Petroline reduces dependence on Hormuz but still relies on vulnerable maritime lanes.
The Iraq–Turkiye line shows another limit: nameplate capacity does not equal real flow. If current exports are around 200,000 bpd, constraints like security risk, political disputes, or operational readiness are holding it back.
ADCOP is the cleanest bypass in geographic terms because Fujairah sits outside Hormuz, but its 1.5 million bpd capacity is meaningful for the UAE, not a regional replacement for the Gulf’s full export volume.
So pipelines are best seen as “damage limitation,” not a true substitute.
Pipelines and energy infrastructure are also vulnerable
The report notes that pipelines remain vulnerable to missile or drone strikes during conflict. Energy infrastructure across the Gulf has already faced attacks, and fixed assets like pipelines can be targeted.
If a pipeline segment is damaged, repairs can take time and flows can fall sharply. That keeps markets nervous because traders price in the risk that both shipping and pipeline routes could be disrupted in parallel. In a war environment, that uncertainty alone can keep oil and gas prices elevated even before actual shortages appear at the consumer level.
Why trucks cannot replace a 20 million bpd sea route
Other options such as trucking are widely seen as impractical at scale. A single truck typically carries only 100 to 700 barrels. To move significant volumes, you would need thousands of trucks daily, plus safe corridors, border handling capacity, and large storage and loading systems.
This is why analysts warn that prolonged Hormuz disruption can have major implications for global energy markets. Pipelines can keep part of the flow alive, especially for Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but the capacity gap is too large to avoid a global price impact if the disruption continues.
